There's been a role reversal in the AFC East.

Tom Brady's exit has taken the Patriots off the pedestal and the Bills have hopped on up as the team dominating the division, 11-1 since 2020.

That includes seven-straight wins over the Dolphins, 9-1 during the Sean McDermott era that began in 2017.

But for the first time in nearly 30 years, Miami and Buffalo will square-off with sole possession of 1st place in the AFC East on the line.

While their records are both 2-0, the Bills certainly come in as the hunted.

The Tyreek Hill trade sparked an offseason-long conversation about how much the Dolphins had potentially closed the gap between them and the Bills?

This Sunday is our first look at trying to answer that question.

Let's dive in.

 

Banged-Up Bills

Injuries are never good, but things are amplified when they mount up at one position group.

The Bills secondary has been hit hard entering this game against the Dolphins.

Starting cornerback Dane Jackson and starting safety Micah Hyde are both already ruled out with neck injuries suffered Monday night against the Titans.

Jordan Poyer suffered a foot injury against Tennessee and has been dealing with soreness all week. He yo-yoed between limited and DNP in the days after and is listed as questionable.

That makes for quite a challenging situation for the Bills, especially going up against a Miami passing attack that's tops in the NFL through two games by averaging 351.5 yards per game.

Hyde's absence means Jaquan Johnson will likely see his second career start. His first came week four of 2020 against Houston. Johnson had three tackles, an interception, and one pass break-up. He allowed just a 12 yard reception.

Jackson missing the game means rookie corners Christian Benford and Kaiir Elam are in line to get the start.

Benford has two of those already under his belt, with Elam rotating in after a few series.

According to Pro Football Reference, Benford has allowed four receptions for 50 yards on the seven targets he's seen in coverage.

Elam has allowed five catches for 42 yards on eight targets seen in coverage.

It's been an adjustment for the 1st round pick, who admits he's struggled at times playing in a zone-heavy scheme after running a press-man scheme throughout his time at Florida.

Now both Elam and Benford will shoulder the load for at least one game against two of the best wide receivers in the NFL.

 

Speedster Receivers

One of those top WRs is Hill, who enters Sunday leading the NFL in receiving yards with 284.

104 of those yards have come after the catch, 3rd most in the league.

Teammate Jaylen Waddle is 3rd in the NFL in yards with 240, but 2nd in YAC with 116.

Their speed is what sets them apart, something that the defenders I spoke with this week noted can only be prepared for so much by watching film. More so, adjustments will need to be made once they see it first hand.

Taron Johnson has experience with both Hill and Waddle and likely will see Waddle more in the slot than Hill.

It's Benford and Elam that'll be introduced to it for the first time, but each said that it's more about maintaining technique than drastically changing things up to accommodate the next level wheel of Waddle and Hill.

Hill has had pedestrian regular season performances against the Bills when with the Chiefs, with 17 receptions for 124 yards in three games. His high for yardage for 63.

The last two postseason meetings have been a different story, with 20 catches for 322 yards and a TD.

Waddle only had 10 receptions for 77 yards in two meetings last year against the Bills.

Tua Tagovailoa's thrown 83 passes so far this season, with 49 of them (59%) going to either Hill or Waddle.

Those two are the focal point of the passing game, getting the ball quick and often.

 

New and Improved Tua?

Tagovailoa leads the NFL in passing yards with 739 and is tied for first in TD passes with seven.

Yes, a lot of that yardage has come after the catch (338 of it, 45.7%), he's still driving the ball down the field farther than his first two seasons.

Tua entered the season with five completions of 40 yards or longer (23 games).

So far through two games this season, he's matched that total of five completions of 40+ yards, three of which have been TDs.

Overall, he's 12th in the NFL with an average pass length of 7.67. He's 7th with an average pass length on completions of 6.8.

Does this mean he's going to sling it around like Josh Allen? Absolutely not. However, going into this game believing all Tagovailoa can do is dink and dunk is incorrect.

New head coach Mike McDaniel has leaned into his QB's strengths, timing and accuracy, and schemed up an offense that caters to those.

If a shot is there, Tagovailoa will take it.

Of course the Bills defense rarely if ever gives up the big play.

 

Allen Owns Miami

It's incredible that it took this long in the preview article to get to Josh Allen and his dominance over the Dolphins.

In his career, Allen's thrown for 1980 yards on 63.2% completion with 21 TD passes to 5 interceptions. He's added 430 yards and 5 TDs rushing, ripping off 9 yards per rushing attempt.

He's thrown at least two TD passes in all eight games he's faced Miami.

The Bills are 7-1 against Miami when Allen starts, winning seven-straight starts.

Three of those performances have earned him AFC Offensive Player of the Week. Two of those honors have been when playing at Hard Rock Stadium, where his TD-to-INT ratio is 11-2 and his QB rating is 103.5.

No reason to believe that would stop now considering Allen enters this latest match-up 4th in the NFL in passing yards (614), tied for 1st in passing TDs (7), 2nd in completion percentage (75.4%), and 2nd in QB rating (123.7).

All that coming while he's 19th in pass attempts with 69.

Add into the mix that Miami's defense is 21st in the NFL, allowing an average of 372 yards per game. They're 255.5 passing yards allowed per game is 25th. The Dolphins are dead last in average yards allowed per played (6.89) and average passing yards allowed per play (8.66).

Oh and they're not getting to the QB with only 2 sacks.

 

On the Line

Bills (-5)

O/U 53

 

Josh Allen O/U Passing Yards: 282.5

Tua Tagovailoa O/U Passing Yards: 262.5

 

Josh Allen O/U Passing TDs: 1.5

Tua Tagovailoa O/U Passing TDs: 1.5

 

Stefon Diggs O/U Receiving Yards: 83.5

Tyreek Hill O/U Receiving Yards: 73.5

Jaylen Waddle O/U Receiving Yards: 63.5

 

**DraftKings Sports Book**

 

Injury Report

BILLS

 

OUT: DT Ed Oliver (ankle), DT Jordan Phillips (hamstring), CB Dane Jackson (neck), S Micah Hyde (neck)

QUESTIONABLE: WR Gabe Davis (ankle), TE Dawson Knox (foot), C Mitch Morse (elbow), DT Tim Settle (calf), S Jordan Poyer (foot)

 

DOLPHINS

 

OUT: TE Cethan Carter (concussion), TE Hunter Long (ankle)

QUESTIONABLE: T Terron Armstead (toe), DT Raekwon Davis (knee), CB Xavien Howard (groin), WR Cedrick Wilson, Jr. (ribs)

 

Bills and Dolphins kick-off from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL Sunday at 1 p.m.

 

​**Make sure to tune into Spectrum News 1 right after the game for "Buffalo End Zone." Our LIVE postgame show brings you team reaction as well as highlights and analysis from former Bills running back Fred Jackson and our Bills Beat Reporter Jon Scott with Kevin Carroll as host. That's "Buffalo End Zone" shortly after the final whistle.**